Article Link: Cramer: Jeffrey Gundlach wasn’t talking to you
Jim Cramer was intrigued by DoubleLine Capital’s founder Jeffrey Gundlach’s commentary that the recent rally in stocks was simply a small rally within a very large bear market.
“I just don’t want you to lose sight that a guy like Gundlach isn’t really addressing you, the individual investor, when he says the stock market has 2 percent upside and 20 percent downside. He was simply trying to make the point that the market might be more dangerous than you think,” the “Mad Money” host said.
If that is the case, Cramer expects that investors will begin to buy stocks such as Clorox, Kimberly-Clark and Coca-Cola, and fewer will buy stretched oil plays like Transocean. And that made sense to him.
According to Bloomberg, Gundlach’s DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund has beaten 99 percent of all of its peers.
“But like most bond fund managers, he does tend to paint stocks with too broad a brush,” Cramer said.
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More importantly, Cramer reminded investors that stocks are in a rolling bear market. Group after group has been crushed for almost two years now. Many stocks are far from their highs, thus a small bounce from the bottom isn’t impressive yet, he said.
Cramer agreed with Gundlach that there will be real issues with banks and indebted oil companies if the price of crude does not head higher. However, each time oil spikes, more oil companies have secondary offerings that are instantly gobbled up on the market.
Many oil companies also sell oil futures and manage to bring in extra income. The combination of these tactics could ensure that distressed companies can stay afloat until 2017, when Cramer expects oil to go much higher.
Even if Gundlach is correct, that there is too much oil sloshing around, Cramer expects that there would simply be a return to the rolling bear market in financial and oil stocks, along with a surge back into consumer staples, restaurants and retailers.
This means that the money won’t leave the stock market. It would simply rotate among different sectors.
“When you’re running $56 billion the way Gundlach is, you don’t have time for niceties, niceties being individual stocks. He’s making much broader, more sweeping pronouncements that might not have the value you ascribe to them, especially since he’s a bond guy anyway,” Cramer said.
So, while Gundlach could be right about some stocks, that does not necessarily make him right about other sectors within the S&P 500. And even if the overall market is too high — Cramer will still find the bull market somewhere.
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Source: CNN Investing