The Un-Wisdom Of Crowds: Prediction Markets Failed Their Midterm Exams

The Un-Wisdom Of Crowds: Prediction Markets Failed Their Midterm Exams

“The wisdom of crowds” is not a universal principle of human decision-making. Prediction markets – which automate such group-think – were wrong in all the key races in the midterms. Groups are not always “smarter than the smartest people in them.”