Will the DJIA Reach 40,000 this decade? And What Could Drive Market Growth?
New feature report will be issued tomorrow 12-7-20 at market open
Good day breakout group,
The markets are strong.
We’ve seen the DJIA pass 30,000 (30,218) and continue to hover in that range. We’ve seen the NASDAQ holding steady above 12,000 (12,464) and the S&P 500 is over 3,600 (3,699). The markets have confounded many given the health and social difficulties presented in 2020.
So, what could be driving the markets? Is there some impetus that could drive the DJIA to 40,000?
The sector’s we expect could experience strong growth through the 2020’s and be the main driver of growth in the markets are biotech, commodities and disruptive technologies.
In the year 2000, scientists were able to map the human genome after fifty years of trying. Their success was fueled by computers that had become equal to the task.
At the time, way back in 2000, pundits in the medical sector predicted the newly discovered data on the human genome would likely not bear fruit for another 20 years. Well…here we are.
Medicine is on the cusp of exciting treatments and cures. The days of pills, powders, and potions are slipping away and being replaced by stem cell therapies, monoclonal antibodies, mRNA applications and gene splicing just to mention a few. These new therapies are in clinical trials being conducted across the globe.
Recently, President Trump received monoclonal stem cell therapy for covid-19 and all the upcoming vaccines for covid-19 are mRNA based. We believe that amazing medicines, treatments, and procedures will come to fruition in the coming decade.
Much of the excitement in biotech will come from the symbiotic relationship between small cap companies on the NASDAQ and big pharma companies. Innovative small caps will continue to create new products and collaborate with big pharma in the development stage.
Biotech stocks may very well be a major market leader because that is the sector where a lot of innovation takes place, and we expect a rash of M&A activity throughout the decade. While the biopharma industry has been absorbed with covid-19 we have seen many programs and clinical trials for treatment programs for other diseases slow down.
In 2019 M&A activity in the biotech sector exceeded $350 billion. We anticipate a lower number in 2020 due to the slowdown of virtually everything during the pandemic. According to PwC group, biotech M&A activity in 2021 and beyond may be focused on these types of companies:
• Mid-size biotech companies, such as cell and gene therapy, oncology, and next-generation biologics, will continue to attract interest from big pharma. Research and development (R&D) and technical expertise will be key drivers.
• Medical devices, vaccines, therapies, and diagnostics connected to pandemic response and future preparedness are expected to have attractive value creation stories and become targets for acquisitions and tie-ups.
• Device manufacturers (and certain drug companies) across a variety of therapeutic areas not related to COVID-19 (including dental, general surgery and orthopedics have faced significant challenges due to restrictions on elective procedures and we expect this to result in consolidation.
• Acquisitions that PLS companies can integrate to pivot their business models towards more digital delivery should see strong interest.
The development of covid-19 vaccines(s) in under a year, or at “warp speed” may have a permanent impact on the FDA and clinical trials. Perhaps we will apply the warp speed mandate to diseases such as cancer that kills hundreds of thousands per year.
We will be keeping a sharp eye on the biotech sector, as the decade progresses. Stay tuned, we are looking at some right now.
New report coming at market open tomorrow 12-7-2020.
Stay tuned and stay informed,
The Traders News Group
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