Update 05/03/21 CTXR now up over 20% following our coverage last week.
“A rapid gain in market value can also release the sharks (short interest traders) and that has happened at CTXR. Short interest on April 29th was approx. 13.8M shares (19.2% of the float), a significant position.”
Good day everyone,
WE are updating our coverage of Citius Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTXR), a late-stage specialty pharmaceutical company dedicated to the development and commercialization of critical care products.
Current price $1.97 per share
Outstanding shares (est.) 134.7M
Float (est.) 68.1M
The last time we reported on CTXR was December of last year and a lot has happened since then. Back in December, the company’s Mino-Lok product was in a Phase III trial, Mino-Wrap and Hydro Lido were in early clinical development, and their i-MSC therapy, licensed from Novellus was in the proof-of-concept stage.
Four products in development
Late-stage Phase III trial
Catalysts already lined up for 2021.
More than $4 billion in potential markets
Shares trading 32% off their February high
As indicated in the company stock chart, 2021 has been a good year for the company shares thus far. Starting the year at $1.02/share, they peaked at $2.90 on February 22nd before consolidating to today’s level. That’s an 86% gain year to date.
When CTXR shares climbed to $2.90 in February, we thought the shares were finally moving toward a better reflection of the company’s potential value, even though $2.90 is less than half the current analysts price target (see below). When the share price stayed consistently under $2.00, we saw value.
A rapid gain in market value can also release the sharks (short interest traders) and that has happened at CTXR. Short interest on April 29th was approx. 13.8M shares (19.2% of the float), a significant position. There appears to be an opportunity for some level of short squeeze here. Together we are strong.
Evaluating a market value for pre-profit biopharma companies can be difficult, but we can look at the viability of the product pipeline and the size of the potential markets to get an idea. Biopharma companies looking for an acquisition utilize this method. We discuss both criteria for CTXR below.
CTXR has a current market value of $258M, a level we believe may be too low given the viability of the pipeline and a potential to penetrate $4 billion in markets.
Citius is advancing four product candidates: 1) Mino-Lok® is in Phase III trials and is enrolling patients, 2) Halo-Lido (CITI-002) is being prepared for a Phase IIb trial, and 3) Mino-Wrap™ (CITI-101) is in pre-clinical stage, 4) Novecite (CITI-004) is in the pre-clinical stage. The markets for these products are large, underserved, and provide unique opportunities for the company. Mino-Lok and Mino-Wrap are the results of licenses with MD Anderson Cancer Center. NoveCite is licensed from Novellus, Inc. Halo Lido is a CTXR product.
Founders and company officers have cumulatively invested $26.5 million into the Company. CEO Myron Holubiak participated in a video interview this week to discuss the company’s progress and direction for 2021. Mr. Holubiak provides up to date information and background on the company in this video.
The market potential for an effective antibiotic lock therapy (Mino-Lok) is estimated at $750 million per year in the U.S. and is projected to reach $1.84 billion globally.
The market opportunity for preventing post-mastectomy infections (Mino-Wrap) in the U.S. is estimated at $400 million per year.
The worldwide market for prescription strength hemorrhoid treatment (Halo Lido) is $2 billion.
The market for a treatment for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (Novecite) has not been determined but may be in the $billions.
CTXR is transparent about its product development and has offered these potential catalyst events for this year and beyond:
Mino-Lok IND Filing Q4 ‘21
Halo Lido IND Filing Q3 ‘21
Halo Lido Phase IIb Trial Start Q3 ‘21
Mino-Lok Phase III Interim Efficacy Q2 ‘21
Mino-Lok Phase III Trial Completed Q3 ‘21
NoveCite IND Filing Q1-2 ‘22
Mino-Lok NDA Submission Q4 ‘21
Analysts seem to indicate unrealized value in the company shares.
3/1/2021 HC Wainwright Buy
2/25/2021 Dawson James Buy $6.00
Stay tuned for our full report on CTXR coming soon where we will discuss the company pipeline in further detail.
Together we’re strong,
The Traders News Group
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